How likely is it?

Today

In “What is a rule?” you met the might-rule — hopscotch’s thrown marker, where the same throw doesn’t land the same way twice. Today you and a partner find out: even though one throw is a surprise, twenty throws make a pattern.

Warm-up (5 min)

Sit with a partner. One of you rolls, one of you records — you will swap jobs halfway. That’s the job split for today, and it only works if both of you do your job.

Predict (10 min)

Before rolling anything, each partner writes a prediction card:

• “I think we will roll more even numbers / odd numbers / neither.” (pick one)
• Say it out loud to your partner. It is okay if you disagree — you’ll both find out together.

Roll and tally (15 min)

Roll the die (or toss the coin) 20 times. After each roll:

1. The recorder marks a tally for that number.
2. Swap roller/recorder jobs after roll 10 — both partners do both jobs.

Analog fallback: no die needed — coin toss heads/tails works the same way.

If you have a screen, try the Dice tool below the lesson to roll hundreds of times instantly and see if the same pattern holds at a bigger size.

Compare with your partner (7 min)

Count the tallies together. Whose prediction was closer? A wrong prediction is still real data — write down what actually happened, not what you expected to happen.

Then answer as a pair, out loud: what was one thing that worked about how you split the job, and one thing you’d do differently next time? That’s the whole habit — notice, don’t just move on.

Share (3 min)

One pair shares their tally with the class. Do the numbers ever come out perfectly even? Why might that be?

Artifact to keep

Keep the tally sheet and both prediction cards. Note who rolled and who recorded for each half — that’s your teamwork record, not just your data.